Confusion Politica!
نعم لدي حالة غريبة من اللخبطة
ليسمحلي إخواني وأخواتي هذه الحالة الغريبة... فالحرب لخبطة، وأنا بحاجة إلى توضيح الرؤيا. ومخي صغير وما أفهم بالسياسة
في البداية استغربت رد فعل الشباب الكويتي وبالذات شباب البرتقالي على موضوع لبنان. ثم قررت تفادي النقاش تماما لأن البعض يملك معلومات خاطئة تماما عن حزب الله (وما جر من ورائه لشتايم واتهامات مرتبطة بموضوع اختطاف الجابرية والتفجيرات في المقاهي الشعبية....الخ)، وليس لديه استعداد لتصحيح هذه المعلومات
قلنا ماشي.... طاف
البعض الآخر يركز على الجانب الإنساني وما لحق من دمار في لبنان ولا يمكنه النظر من أي زاوية غير هذه... وما ألومهم كلش... لكني أتمنى يركزون على الهجوم على اسرائيل ومساعدة لبنان بكل الأساليب الممكنة
والبعض يشكك في أجندة حزب الله الإيرانية السورية و يشبه حسن نصرالله بصدام حسين وبن لادن وجمال عبدالناصر، على اختلافهم. هذه النقطة استوقفتني قليلا
طبعا بن لادن كان سخيف وما عنده سالفة في نظري غير إنه سهل الحرب الدولية على "الإرهاب" وخلط الأوراق وتسمية أي مجموعة مقاومة "إرهابيين"؟
وصدام حسين... برغم حيونته (إيه حيونته) وسخافة الفكرة، إلا إن الشارع العربي انجر وراء الحلم الرومانسي وتحرير فلسطين بعد أول صاروخ على تل أبيب
عبدالناصر... أول خيبة لجموع العرب بعد انسحابه من السويس. "مغامرة غير محسوبة" أو تواطؤ الله أعلم، لكنه "تسبب" في هزيمة تركت جرحا غائرا في نفسيات العرب و"تروما" لا تبرأ
رومانسية الحلم العربي جميلة
فقد تعلمنا وتربينا على الحلم بقائد عربي يبرد قلوبنا
وتربينا على كره إسرائيل والحلم إن في يوم من الأيام نلعن أبو خامسها
هل يا ترى حماس بعضنا (وانا بعد وياكم) لحسن نصرالله مرتبط بهذا الحلم؟
وهل رد فعل الشباب يأتي من الخوف من زيف هذا الحلم ونكسة أخرى؟
طيب
لنرجع إلى التشكيك في أجندة حزب الله (من باب التحليل لعل الرؤيا تتضح لي)؟
أولا: حزب الله هي الميليشيا الأقوى تسليحا في لبنان لأن سوريا "فصخت" القوات السنية من أسلحتها وقادتها... يا ترى مخطط قديم؟
ثانيا: مزارع شبعا حسب تخطيط الأمم المتحدة سورية وليست لبنانية. واسرائيل تتذرع بهذا السبب لاستمرار احتلالها لها "قولوا شبعا لبنانية واحنا نسلمها لبنان". بس سوريا رافضة تماما. ليش؟ وشنو علاقة "الشرق الأوسط الجديد" بهالتقسيمة؟
ثالثا: العدد الكلي للأسرى اللبنانيين في اسرائيل (3) حسب بيانات وزارة الخارجية، من ضمنهم شخص عليه خلاف لأن والدته يهودية فاسرائيل ترى أنه يعود لها وليس للبنان. هل موضوع "تحرير" الأسرى مستاهل كل العواقب؟
رابعا: حزب الله هو الحزب الشيعي الأقوى في الشرق الأوسط ذو مرجع فارسي (وليس عربي). وخارطة الشرق الأوسط الجديد قائمة على الأقليات (الدينية تحديدا). فهل الفكرة دمج جنوب لبنان ومزارع شبعا ونقل كل المجموعات الشيعية ذات المراجع الفارسية إليها؟ بالذات في ظروف العفسة في العراق؟
خامسا: ما هو تعريف حزب الله للنصر؟ استرجاع الأسرى الثلاث؟ معقولة؟ طب لو انسحبت اسرائيل فوريا من لبنان... هل يعتبر حزب الله ذلك نصر؟ وإذا لأ... فما هو الهدف من هذه الحرب؟ ماذا يريد حزب الله؟
لعل ما تريد اسرائيل هو فعلا تأمين خط البترول الجديد من لبنان إلى إسرائيل (يمكن... مادري) وفي نفس الوقت تبدأ عملية تقسيم الشرق الأوسط الجديد؟ لكن ... هل سترتاح اسرائيل و"دولة" حزب الله جارها المباشر؟
نعم... جميل إن اسرائيل تنطق على راسها
جميل إن هذا القائد العربي بكل ما فيه من "كاريزما" يفي بوعوده
جميل إن حزب الله قادر حتى اليوم على إحباط التدخل الاسرائيلي بريا
لكن وبعيدن؟
مادري؟؟
أترك هذه التساؤلات لكم ... أفيدونا أفادكم الله
هذه الحالة لا تعني بأي شكل من الأشكال الابتعاد عن مساندة الشعب اللبناني.. لذلك الدعوة ما زالت قائمة
قلنا ماشي.... طاف
البعض الآخر يركز على الجانب الإنساني وما لحق من دمار في لبنان ولا يمكنه النظر من أي زاوية غير هذه... وما ألومهم كلش... لكني أتمنى يركزون على الهجوم على اسرائيل ومساعدة لبنان بكل الأساليب الممكنة
والبعض يشكك في أجندة حزب الله الإيرانية السورية و يشبه حسن نصرالله بصدام حسين وبن لادن وجمال عبدالناصر، على اختلافهم. هذه النقطة استوقفتني قليلا
طبعا بن لادن كان سخيف وما عنده سالفة في نظري غير إنه سهل الحرب الدولية على "الإرهاب" وخلط الأوراق وتسمية أي مجموعة مقاومة "إرهابيين"؟
وصدام حسين... برغم حيونته (إيه حيونته) وسخافة الفكرة، إلا إن الشارع العربي انجر وراء الحلم الرومانسي وتحرير فلسطين بعد أول صاروخ على تل أبيب
عبدالناصر... أول خيبة لجموع العرب بعد انسحابه من السويس. "مغامرة غير محسوبة" أو تواطؤ الله أعلم، لكنه "تسبب" في هزيمة تركت جرحا غائرا في نفسيات العرب و"تروما" لا تبرأ
رومانسية الحلم العربي جميلة
فقد تعلمنا وتربينا على الحلم بقائد عربي يبرد قلوبنا
وتربينا على كره إسرائيل والحلم إن في يوم من الأيام نلعن أبو خامسها
هل يا ترى حماس بعضنا (وانا بعد وياكم) لحسن نصرالله مرتبط بهذا الحلم؟
وهل رد فعل الشباب يأتي من الخوف من زيف هذا الحلم ونكسة أخرى؟
طيب
لنرجع إلى التشكيك في أجندة حزب الله (من باب التحليل لعل الرؤيا تتضح لي)؟
أولا: حزب الله هي الميليشيا الأقوى تسليحا في لبنان لأن سوريا "فصخت" القوات السنية من أسلحتها وقادتها... يا ترى مخطط قديم؟
ثانيا: مزارع شبعا حسب تخطيط الأمم المتحدة سورية وليست لبنانية. واسرائيل تتذرع بهذا السبب لاستمرار احتلالها لها "قولوا شبعا لبنانية واحنا نسلمها لبنان". بس سوريا رافضة تماما. ليش؟ وشنو علاقة "الشرق الأوسط الجديد" بهالتقسيمة؟
ثالثا: العدد الكلي للأسرى اللبنانيين في اسرائيل (3) حسب بيانات وزارة الخارجية، من ضمنهم شخص عليه خلاف لأن والدته يهودية فاسرائيل ترى أنه يعود لها وليس للبنان. هل موضوع "تحرير" الأسرى مستاهل كل العواقب؟
رابعا: حزب الله هو الحزب الشيعي الأقوى في الشرق الأوسط ذو مرجع فارسي (وليس عربي). وخارطة الشرق الأوسط الجديد قائمة على الأقليات (الدينية تحديدا). فهل الفكرة دمج جنوب لبنان ومزارع شبعا ونقل كل المجموعات الشيعية ذات المراجع الفارسية إليها؟ بالذات في ظروف العفسة في العراق؟
خامسا: ما هو تعريف حزب الله للنصر؟ استرجاع الأسرى الثلاث؟ معقولة؟ طب لو انسحبت اسرائيل فوريا من لبنان... هل يعتبر حزب الله ذلك نصر؟ وإذا لأ... فما هو الهدف من هذه الحرب؟ ماذا يريد حزب الله؟
لعل ما تريد اسرائيل هو فعلا تأمين خط البترول الجديد من لبنان إلى إسرائيل (يمكن... مادري) وفي نفس الوقت تبدأ عملية تقسيم الشرق الأوسط الجديد؟ لكن ... هل سترتاح اسرائيل و"دولة" حزب الله جارها المباشر؟
نعم... جميل إن اسرائيل تنطق على راسها
جميل إن هذا القائد العربي بكل ما فيه من "كاريزما" يفي بوعوده
جميل إن حزب الله قادر حتى اليوم على إحباط التدخل الاسرائيلي بريا
لكن وبعيدن؟
مادري؟؟
أترك هذه التساؤلات لكم ... أفيدونا أفادكم الله
هذه الحالة لا تعني بأي شكل من الأشكال الابتعاد عن مساندة الشعب اللبناني.. لذلك الدعوة ما زالت قائمة
شاركوا برسومات ورسائل أطفالكم وإخوانكم وأطفال أصدقائكم في معرض الأطفال (في البوست السابق) وسأعرض جميع الأعمال يوم 11/8 لتصويتكم عليها
50 comments:
Hi Dear :)
I loved your post, not because I agree with the theory you're begining to build (if any)but because it is healthy to review one's stands regularly to make sure that we don't block our minds and become passive followers.
It takes intelligence and courage to ask questions and re-analyze things. I wish everybody has this skill.
Having said that .. Now it's my time to afti bra7ti ;)
Saddam, Bin Ladin, 3bdilnasir and Nasrallah are not the same. Despite the fact that different groups of the 3arb consider each elmahdi almontathar :)
We all dream of a Leader .. sure! But why? Psychologically and historically we have this need because of our tribal origins AND because of our continuous feeling of injustice and bias. Is that a bad thing? Hmmmm .. Maybe :)
But whether good or bad this need will reduce when we evolve AND when we feel that we are the masters of our destinty and no other power is manipulating and condtroling us. (i.e. US, israel and Arab regimes). This requires teamwork AND leadership.
Do we disagree with 7izballah's idealogy? of course! But in conflict there are priorities. Just as we voted for salaf w ekhwan w shi3a met3sbeen for majlis elomma, the same logic holds.
Is what happened worth it? Only the Lebanese people can say. Otherwise we will be making the same mistake as those who asked to stop the Desert Storm because of the Iraqi civilian casualities. But for me personally, if the option is losing a land that I beleive is mine and living with an enemy that keeps testing my tolerance, then I would say no price is high enough.
I took so much of your space. I'm sorry. But more later I guess .. I have to go back to work .. '3rbal allah blisich :*
P.S. mako hadiya 7g eli e3aligh awal for 3 times ?!
ummel3yal,
fi re7la lebnan one way:-p
thanx for the kind words. It's not a matter of building a theory, these are basic questions that i can't answer!
I am not, however, saying that Saddam, bin Ladin, 3bdinnaser, or nasrallah are the same in anyway. The only thing they have in common is us. We have a tendency to idealise leaders, and we never got rid of that. We just substitute one for the other, regardless of idiology.
I am and will remain with the resistance against Israel. That's the least we could do. Whether this resistance is 7izballah, the Lebanese Army, 7amas, or inshallah space monkeys!
What i'm wondering about, is whether or not 7izballa has a hidden agenda other than "defending lebanon". This seems to be the wider opinion, but no one is saying WHAT that agenda is, nor am I able to figure one out.
Thanx for taking time off work, next time hold your comments until u'r free :-pppppppppppp
(good thing you don't have the time or energy)
lol
Bida elte6iniz rasmi ?!! Allah kareem :p
THe 'wider opinion' is misguided by many false and inccurate information as you said. The majority would rather that 7izbollah has a hidden agenda to justify their inability to support it. The wider opinion's opinion (7ilwa hathi) is a typical defence mechanism to aviod possible disappointment as you hinted.
Again, not defending 7izbollah, but if it had a hidden agenda wouldn't it be better to try to realize it when the Syrain were there? They will hav better internal support and will corner the Syrains to actually fight against srael.
Just a thought :)
Inzain, mafi mug or 7ata f6eer meshaltit :))
ummel3yal,
and your answer would be a classical reply to hang on to a dream :-)
It would have been difficult for 7izballah to do anything while Syria were there since they were not as strong as they are today. Syrian withdrawal made them stronger!
What else have you got? :-)
Very long comment, so I decided to "break it up" and reply in "parts". I think it will make discussion easier - I hope.
Their agenda is, in essence, forcing the israelis to withdraw from occupied territories and declare a sovereign Palestinian state.
To me, it's not a matter of 3 Lebanese prisoners or 10 Palestinians.
That is if we do not want to go in and discuss the Shab3a farms for the time being.
-
To say that 7izbala has a Syrian/Iranian agenda is to not understand nor draw a difference between what financing is and what an agenda is.
All that is said about "tassdeer il thawra" is refuted by the Syrian presence. All that is said about the Syrian agenda is refuted by the "tasdeer il thawra" argument. Might as well say they have a Venezuelan agenda while they're at it.
That said, and by those same (faulty) measures, it would be just as plausible (for the sake of argument) to suggest that the Israelis have an "American agenda".
Surely, that is not the wording for the case at hand and most evident for the novices in the past 4 weeks.
Part II: Bin Laden/Sadamo
As for Bin Laden, he has terrorised the US by attacking civilians on 9.11.
His reasons for opposing the US are not about Palestine nor occupied lands in general; the prisoners of Arabs (and muslims); or anything of the sort.
In short: Bin Laden does not resist any occupation(s) on the part of israel which is backed up by the US in the international community, if one were to stay consistent and regard the UNSC as that community.
His opposition is that to the US bases in "the region". Sheghel eljazeera el3arabeya maw6in il islam o mayjoz wejod el moshrikeen madri sheno.
Namely in today's terms, Saudi Arabia - and how the Saudis have declined his "offer" that he bring his "Mujahideen" reserves (from Afghanistan who have fought off the Russians in their invasion of Afghanistan) to hold back the Sadam invasion of Kuwait and threat to KSA.
Note: I say "his" to mean that Bin Laden being a Saudi and from a prominent family can reach the KSA leadership.
Point being, Bin Laden was never a "leader" of anyone, yakel teben. The US media needed a face, he is that face and the "alqa3ida" is the conclusion - which does not exist.
-
Sadam's coming to power was a response to two events (bas 3alashan nefham el mofaragat ma bain el7ezb o 7amaas as opposed to bin laden o sadam). Frist, the late `78 protests in Iran against the Shah, and the completion of the revolution early `79; and second, news of unifying Iraq with Syria. Backed by the US, waladna tewakal 3ala iblees and practically overthrew Il Bakr forcing a resignation.
How do we know he was backed by the US? One need not guess who armed him; who stayed quiet despite his use of chemical weapons in the war; and the infamous pictures of ilshab ila6eef Rumsfeld `82-83.
Part III: Mazari3 Shab3aa. Kalak "wala zayyoh"?
Back to the Shab3a farms, is it Syrian? Lebanese? Israeli?
What I know is Syria said we won't declare any borders unless Israelis withdrew.
Ya3ni 7ata lo il mas'ala kelha le3ba, as there are (my limited knowledge) contradicting maps from Lebanon saying the farms are either Syrian or Lebanese, Israel's occupation is still the hurdle.
I.e. if Syria ezgombeyya ma yaboon ye3tarfoon ena il mizare3 Lebanese or not, o 7a6een shar6 "khal Israel tense7ib", o Israel MA TABY tense7ib, then there you have it. Israel is the one occupying the land illegaly.
Lebanon and Syria "yes6afloun" (methel ma ohma yegolon) 3ogob ma Israel tense7ib. If this is all a fabrication, then so be it. Just as much of a fabrication of israel and the US. As I say, the agenda is the occupied territories and the declaration of a state with Sharg Il Quds as the captial.
Notice that a complete Shab3aa farms withdrawal would definitely be another "victory" (madri shfekom) for the Lebanese slash Arabs. Proving, once again, that force and resistance are the way to free occupied lands from israel.
Ba3dain 3ogb ma yensa7boun kaifhom, khal lebnan o sorya yethaweshon fi ma "bayynattunn" .. laa7geen 3ala the arabs hating each other. :)
Part IV: 7izbala il di3la shyabi?
You ask "shely yabeh el7ezb", o atwaga3 that was discussed above (note that this is my understanding and what I know of il7izb), so to recap: the Arab (including and not restricted to muslims) prisoners and the Sheb3a farms, if returned (both), then yes that is "victory" and freeing both nationals/arabs and land.
Does il7izb want a "dawla she3iya"? I don't think so, no. I don't think they can afford it. And I don't see why they would want it.. ? Doesn't serve any purpose at all.
Finally, a3tib 3alaich for not including 7amaas.
Honestly, I don't "care" if it's s. Nasralla or someone else.
Meaning, I'm not a supporter of resistance because of this person or that; not at all. Just like I support 7amaas, I support 7izbala.
The question is: why? Why would I support these two?
First, for the differences above between them and what is called Il Qa3ida (6ab3an tashbeeh sakheef mn ilba3th).
Second, for the fact that the Arab leaders KNOWING ma 3endehom il sharr3eya lel7okom, i.e. no elections or whatever, they are not in a position to defy the US (which is the ally of the region) and support the Palestinian cause, slash, occupied territories.
Ya3ni ana nafs ely kel ma yakhsir el fareeg ely yeshaj3a eb kaas el3alam, yero7 yenagy ely 6alla3 el magloub ... 3erfaana ya arfaana?
Part V (chena, madri thaya3t)
Two notes about what you wrote Arfana
a) You mention "khare6at el sharg el awsa6 el jadeed" and I think you refer to this one.
Awal shay, it's not 'really' this one that talks of a new ME.
This was just a thought of an American retiree who obviously does not understand anything except the 'number' of X people here and Y people there.
The US would not even think of breaking it up like this, given the "untapped" oil reserves in the east-Asia pacific and the remaining 20-30yrs in the Gulf? Khair inshalla!
b) You wrote:
حزب الله هو الحزب الشيعي الأقوى في الشرق الأوسط ذو مرجع فارسي
Marje3eyat il 7izb - I think you mean here as being "yegaldoun s. 3ali khamena'ey" (?) is not why they are doing what they are doing (but yes, I think they have welayat il faqeeh). But like discussed above, the issue is the occupied territories.
Finance slash support is different than marje3eya. Especially since il marje3eya really is the spirtual part.
Case in point: the meeting of Iranian officials with 7amaas a couple of months back refutes the conclusion of 7izbala being "loyal" to Iran and not Lebanon and their cause - wela laish nafs il shay ma yengal about 7amaas? Why isn't 7amas loyal to Iran, not Palestine..?
Sadgeni as'hal tafseer 7ag KEL SHAY ehwa ely tesme3eena mn el naas: etehaam wara etehaam.
Also, if this point you raise is a continuation to the "new ME map", then I think the fact that there is "no official map" yet, as I don't even think Rice was LITERALLY talking about a MAP aslan, takes care of the reply.
-
Finally, Iraq. Eeeeeeh yal 3raag, a whole different topic o inshala nekhaleeha for later discussion.
مع احترامي للجميع حزب الله وحسن نصرالله وغيرهم لانهم يقاتلون عدو الاسلام الازلي ، لكن جميعهم مبتدئين سياسة .. وقد اشرتي في تساؤلاتك عن الهدف من الحرب وهل هو تحرير أسيرين ؟ والثمن مئات القتلى الابرياء .. أعتقد ان من ينجرف وراء الحرب التقليدية مبتدئ سياسة .. وهل القتل هو الحل الوحيد ؟ اين ذهب الاقتصاد والتعليم والموارد الطبيعيه وغيرها كأساس للمساومة والضغط السياسي ؟
Dear Temetwir,
I just love your language when you're cool and calm lol
now, first things first. I replied once to you on kella m6goog's post on the new ME topic. This issue was raised a couple of months ago by other bloggers as I mentioned in my June post "long scary post". The guy referred me to this article and book:
http://www.alwatan.com.kw/Default.aspx?MgDid=359368&pageId=80
http://www.alwatan.com.kw/Default.aspx?MgDid=360228&pageId=80
http://www.alwatan.com.kw/Default.aspx?MgDid=361128&pageId=80
المصدر: أسرار السياسة العربية - عبدالهادي البكار
I'm yet to find this book believe it or not! But the whole idea of the new alledged map is to subdivide the ME into its problem minorities. That's where i'm getting all these ideas. yes by "marji3 faresi" I mean goes back to Qum instead of Iraq... regardless of Irani alliance/funding.
Second,
I understand the difference between common agenda and alliance. What i'm questionning is the reason for this alliance (with Iran and Syria). What do they get in return?
Third,
while bin ladin and saddamo to us are a known story, the average joe (or should we call him m7ammad since we're referring to Arabs) did think or both as Leaders and alot were passionate about both of them! Is it because the average m7ammad loves violence? or is it because we're just all thirsty for ANY ACTION what so ever!? Otherwise, point is taken :-)
Fourth,
Not only hasn't syria done jack $hit about shab3a and Lebanon, it hasn't done ANYTHING about el joulan!!!!!!! If they really wanted to liberate Shab3a, they could have just given it up to Lebanese! But they don't want that!!! Although it would very much be in control of their allies (7izballah)
Finally,
I didn't include 7amas because no one disagrees on their role! Although they are fundamentalists, they are resisting occupation and general opinion supports that. I just "picked my battels" 3ala golat ummel3yal (who by the way wants a free t-shirt for commenting first, shooflaha allah ykhalleek t-shirt tay7a 3indik DHL it to her) :-)
Thank you again, and keep `em coming :-)
fuzzy,
an excellent point. but don't you need the support of our beloved systems to use these weapons? aren't they in control of all? What alternatives do we have?
Hi again,
I took a break to think about your statment are we just "hanging on to a dream" ?
I wanted to chech few peices of information and actually reflect on my own emotions and feelings to make sure I'm not just being 'politically romantic' or a typical 'borjowajiza sa'3eera' .. LOL
Anyway, what I'm trying to say (supported with Temitwer's argument) is that there is no visible or logical reason to doubt HA agenda .. even if we want to subscribe to the conspiracy theory.
In Bin Ladin's case it is very easy to prove that he knowingly played into the American's grand plot. Saddam, stupidly did. But HA is, I think, too trasparent to give room for consperencies :)
Again, a reverse logic will be helpful here, what could the hidden agenda be? Distroying Lebanon? Building a Shi3a state? Distracting the world from Iran's nuclear plans? None of that make any sense for the abvious logic, common sense and contradicting feild facts.
So, my relpy to you is to 'beleive' that the dream can and will come true. In any relationship and/or alliance there has to be a level of trust and this is the time where we need to trust our objective judgement. The war, the death, the distruction and the psychological warfare has it's impact on out judgement whether we are aware of that or not. What new "facts" have changed during the past few weeks that would make you doubt your judgment? Think about it :)
On a very different note, this page is reguraly references for info about the Lebanese/Israeli conflict. The authors admit that their views are not balanced and ask for facts and references to balance things. That can be a good media project :)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Israel-Lebanon_conflict#_note-12
ummel3yal,
if Israel withdraws from Shab3a, would you call that victory to 7izballah? or victory to el sanyora's plan? knowing that el sanyora's plan practically disarms 7izballah?
my confusion is not the result of psychological war :-p
it's just that things do not fit comfortably together!
Again i'll ask you the same question I asked temetwir:
What does Iran want from this alliance?
What does Syria want?
ham afidoona :-)
PS> the link is AWSOME! thank you
Arfana, (and everyone: this is my personal opinion and I am definitely open for anything to be noted or argued against.)
1. Apologies for not seeing those articles on KM's space - but yup I have read these articles all previously, and have found them very interesting.
Still, however, I'm not sure what Qum or Najaf has to do with it (the 'string' of countries you propose). I mean, just for the sake of argument, I strongly believe that even if marje3hom was s. Sistani in Iraq; I think this will have absolutely no effect on 7izbala's actions.
Let us not forget, they are Lebanese, and to my knowledge, s. Fathlalla in Lebanon has a very large "following" (wrong word).
My point is, there is no telling of il tagleed (shkether yegaldon meno) as it is a matter of individual judgement, yet it still will not affect resistance.
2. What do Syria and Iran get in return. Good question.
I think Iran is motivated by its idealogy for one thing. That they, as an Islamic state, have the duty to step up against the zionists - which is why I am "for" the nuclear weapon - and retrieve Il Quds from their grasp. Call me a radical, but unless those 250+ assumed nuclear warheads in israel are being kept for fireworks, I want to level the region and allow a sit-down-at-the-table.
Lel asaf, I was hoping that this will call for KSA to start its nuclear program laken after their stance on this, it is very clear that even if they did pursue a nuclear program (b tabreekat jema3at il3amma Rice), they would only keep it to neutralize Iran - and NOT step as a nuclear power to demand israel the rights for a Palestinian state.
(3ala golat wa7ed mn elrabi3, betseer belthab6 nfs el hind o bakistan)
Also, because I don't consider Iran as Baba Nowail ely beyeeblena hadaya at no one's expense, I think Iran needs the neutralizing of israel as the sole power in the region to be able to trade and call off sanctions. When the Palestinian state is settled, this will most definitely open for all sorts of diplomatic relations between everyone. Thus, Iran "jump starts" and can really do something with their economy. I'm sure that there are restrictions now, just like for Russia, since neither are in the WTO. Surely, it is an incentive.
This of course is something the US can not afford because they are now the sole superpower in the world. Iran's stepping up is something that I doubt seeing unless rabi3na in the GCC yeseeron athkiya o yewag3oun etefageyat non-aggression from land nor sea (i.e. not allowing US bases to operate - YEA RIGHT). After the recent statements, I think it is more of an issue between KSA and Iran, than US and Iran to be frank. :)
So, in summary, I think Iran has a lot to gain - and needs to gain. Although I see this as a threat given the current GCC-Iran relation (allah laysame7 mn kan el sebab), but I'm guessing the UAE/Iran islands can be used as leverage. Diff'ly straying off topic, but I think this is interesting.
Now, Syria. Syria I think 3endaha 3ogda. I think they still don't even RECOGNIZE Lebanon, thinking that they are the Great Nation of Syria or something. But for the time being, I am guessing the threat is israel in the first place and its occupation of the territories. Also, israel's grasp of the artillery and the ever generous backing of the US surely yerajje7 kaffat el man6aga kelha to israel. Something which, en radat lelsij, even e7na in Kuwait can NOT afford, laken lelasaf are doing nothing about.
I (as well as everyone else I think) definitely have many issues with Syria and Iran as states, but for the time being, israel is not only affecting our economies, our potential, but I think israel really gives us no security whatsoever - times and times more than Iran and Syria combined.
Politics 101. Choosing friends; Making enemies.
Who do YOU want to be on the OTHER side? :)
Sorta like us with the US, mn zeen banat'hom el shegraan el 7emraan? Imlaw3een chabdna eb Rice, why? Because we chose friends to make certain enemies.
3. Why hasn't Syria done anything about Il Joulan.
Well, we have to realize the fact that Syria, being an Arab state, puts it in a very tricky position.
Ya3ni, Syria 3endaha "Jaish Nithaamy", and I would imagine armed with overdated Russian artillery and arms that would not stand against israel if they were to fight off israel in the Joualan. Not to mention, what does il Joulan really do for any of the above reasons in 2?
Now, does this mean that Lebanon is being used as the land to settle down Iranian/Syrian business? Of course not. But guess what, that's what they want you to think.
How do I know that?
How about: refusing to talk to Iran/Syria for one thing? As if to say "tell them to stop it".. Yeah right, like it's in their hands? Which really, to me at least, completes the circle in noting that 7izbala sayid gararaata .. It's not like those 2 countries ask him for favours.
I have my reasons to state that, and I am up for arguments. As always.
Final note, though. To you Arfana: I disagree in saying that 7amaas are "fundamentalists".
They are equivelants of "il ikhwan il muslimeen", like in Egypt and "7adas" in Kuwait.
They're politicians.
Fundamentalists = what is called ilqa3ida.
Fundamentalists = Ben Jabrain o tholaathy athwaa' el masra7 (binladen, thawahry, o ilzargawi)
Chairz.
Let me start with Syria and Iran: Both countries have supported many national lebiration movements (some are even commenists) like the Iraqi resistance, the Plastinian movements, Al-Jihad alislami, alda3wa .. etc. Just as they supported pofessional terror groups and gangs. Not for swad 3younhom but to maitain some leverage with the US and Israel AND to rally national and Islamic support being A3khir 7i9n lel7rakat elwa6niya. This is not new and not limited to HA. So, Syria and Iran claim to support 7rakat alta7aror elsha3bi like eljabha elsha3biya w el7izb elshoyo3i el3iraghi to remain in the loop and have someting to bargin the US and the other Arab regimes with. This is ancient history. And the more intense and close the danger is the more mixed up the alliances will be.
What constititutes victory, for starter busting the myth of aljaysh alathi la yoghar :) Second and most importantly showing Israel, the US and the Arabic regimes that passing their grand plans will not be resistance free. As for HA losing their weapons, this is too early to confirm. This will be an internal Lebanses issue that won't be resolved that easily. There might be tactical compromises, but not strategic defeats. With all the misbalance in power and international support, yes! It would be a victory.
I guess it might be a matter of expectaions. What did you expect as a 'victory'?
أقول قولي هذا وأستغفر الله لي ولكم :))
أرفانا،
الصراحة مقالة طويلة وأفكار كثير وأسئلة أكثر، لو تكونين مقسمتها على اكثر من موضوع عشان يتم مناقشة كل قضية على حدى راح يكون وايد أفضل.
ودي أعلق الحين، بس أدري راح أعلق على نقطة وأنسى أخرى، وكل النقاط المذكورة مهمة.
لأنه الحين قاعدة تصير الردود وايد طويلة.
شرايج؟
Hi Everybody,
Check this link .. et3il elroo7 3ala ma it downloads, but worth it:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=9071731896689197790
Very interesting :)
Temitwir, Ummel3yal:
Thank you for the info, I'll sleep on it and let you know in the morning if I have more questions.
Just a note to temetwir,
ekhwan muslimeen in my view ARE fundamentalists!
Phizo,
المشكلة إن الأسئلة مرتبطة ببعضها. ماعرفت أجزئها من غير ما أفقد تركيزي :-)
بس حاضر نختصر (سمعتوا تمطور وأم العيال؟؟ الريال تعب من الكلام
In the mean time, if you all haven't seen this yet, the interview with Scottish MP Galloway:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/video/videoplayer/0,,31200-galloway_060806,00.html
w rabi3na sakteeeeeeeeen ya 7iloohom
arfana
We Have the National assembly
Fizokra6i .. Do I sense ADD? :))
Sorry 3l e6ala, but things are connected and it's hard to sepetate them.
Arfana, yes! I loved the interview and its timing ;)
umm3yal,
didnt get it :(
Fizokra6i,
Sorry dear, I meant Attention Deficient Disorder, ADD .. where some can not keep their attention for a long time. Typically they can not stay in one place or one position for a long time and can not listen or focus for prolonged periods.
I'm just kidding of course .. or I hope :))
Umm3yal,
well madre!
but in this case, i'm intersted in discusiing each issue seperately. As I see, one issue is abou Abdulnasser. Other is about finding the super hero. And then how to win the war. Ya3ni different issues, each worth to be discussed.
:)
Well Fizokra6i, you forgot the basic question: Who moved my cheese? ;)
Seriously, focus on the main question: does HA have a hidden agenda? Why?
Eveybody,
I hope you heard the UN Secrurity Counsel speeches. The Israeli representative actually quoted a Lebanese young man's blog to make the point that all Lebanese are against HA!! What do you think about that!
Also, check this link for more on the Saudi movements for Lebanon:
http://www.islamonline.net/Arabic/news/2006-07/31/10.shtml
Sorry Arfana, I don't mean to change the subject .. but filling in till you're back from your "thinking" :))
هي لخبطة بالفعل
---------------------------
حكاية مسؤولية حزب الله عن توريط لبنان في حرب غير متكافئة كانت مقولة لها قوتها فقط في الاسبوع الاول من الحرب وبعدها اتضحت السالفة ان اسرائيل كانت مستعدة لكل ما فعلته وهي بالمناسبة دولة مستعدة على الدوام لان تعيش في محيط يكرهها
وبعد خروجها المهين من جنوب لبنان عام 2000
كانت تعد العدة للانتقام وقد فعلت ودمرت البلد
---------------------------
لا يوجد هناك نصر عسكري يمكن ان ينسب لحزب الله مثلما يمكن ان ينسب لجيش نظامي
ولكن حزب الله حقق نصرا سياسيا ومعنويا يصعب تجاهله كما نجح في كشف مدى الخوف وليس الضعف لدى اسرائيل من شن حرب ضدها حتى لو من جيش غير نظامي
وللامانة كان نصر حزب الله مكلفا ونتج عنه تدمير لبنان بصورة مفرعة وازهاق ارواح مئات الابرياء
--------------------------
صدام بن لادن نصر الله أي واحد المسلمين والعرب ما يهمهم منو اللي يواجه اسرائيل المهم ان واحد يوقف ويرمي حجر على اسرائيل يصير بطل
وهذه الحالة مرتبطة بتراكمات طويلة من الفشل والاحباط والهزائم المتتالية ناهيك عن الكره والخلاف التاريخي العميق الجذور بين اليهود والمسلمين من يوم ما بعث رسول الهداية صلى الله عليه وسلم
اليوم لبنان المسكين مطلوب منه تخليص ثارات مئات السنين مع اسرائيل وحده فقط ودون مساعدة
اشخري ياانشراح بعد ماراح اللي راح
Ummel3yal,
Well, when u say "hidden agenda" are hinting for their relation with Iran.?
What Arfana is doubting is whether HA has objectives other than lebirating Lebanon. Her doubts are fueled by the Iranian and Syrian support. But I think we're past this point now. I think she is better off explaining the roots of her doubts .. But she's still thinking ;)
ummel3yal,
la ghab el 2e66? lol
shokran 3ala el shar7 :-p
Phizo,
لأن معظم الشباب يهاجمون حزب الله، قلت نطق بريك ونلعب شوية بالفكرة. هل الهجوم هذا له معنى؟ غطينا نقاط وايدة سابقا فيما يتعلق بصحة الخرابيط اللي يقولونها. ألحين الكل يقول أيه هذي سوريا وإيران بيلعبون بلبنان. أوكي. شيبون سوريا وإيران في لبنان؟ خلينا نبدي في هالموضوع
ummel3yal,
isn't it stupid of Syria to advocate those groups to "remain in the pool" like you've mentioned then goes ahead and arrests everyone? lol 7atta hathy mo la3binha sa7??? really it doesn't make sense! They could project a better image by maintaining intelligence without causing a human right attack on them. No?
fuzzy,
أي مجلس وطني؟
عاجل
هل معنى هذا إنك مع المقاومة؟ تغيير إيجابي في الموقف
:-)
Barrak,
عدينا الشخرة... وجات الفكرة
Note to all:
Let's play the Devil's Advocate in the analysis. Any claims by others can be confirmed or refuted accordingly.
love ya :-*
عرض الحقائق المجردة مثل تدمير لبنان احراج حزب الله لاسرائيل لا يعني اني مع او ضد أي طرف هذه مسالة مبدأية
-------------
تسأليني هل مع انت مع المقاومة؟
يعني سؤال مباشر أقول لك نعم وطالما ان هناك شبر محتل في جزء من الوطن العربي فالمقاومة مشروعة ضد المحتل
------------
لهذا ليس في مواقفي تطور ايجابي أو سلبي بل ثابت وهذا يكفيني
عاجل
cool :-)
thanx
In an interview last night in CNN, David Mack, a lead expert in the Middle East Institute, asserted the theory that Syria's support to HA is caused by the US attitude towards Syria and the refusal to include them in the ME talks.
His theory is that Syria's stand will change 180 degrees if the US agrees to include them in the talks and negotiations. I totally agree with that :)
ummel3yal,
then how do you & the expert explain sayyid 7asan's gratitude for Syria's blankets and then mocking others for sending blankets "it's not winter, we don't need blankets" ?
just for me to get some prespective :-)
Umel3yal, Arfana,
حلو وجميل، هل تتفقون معي على أن سوريا لا تأثير لها على حزب الله إطلاقا؟ وأن حزب الله لا تربطه بسوريا أي علاقة غير العلاقة اللوجستية مع إيران؟
أي أن سوريا لا تملك القدرة في التأثير على سياسة حزب الله لا من قريب ولا من بعيد، وهي تعمل كمجرد جسر بين حزب الله وايران، وهي تفعل ذلك بفعل الضغط الإيراني عليها، بما معناه سوريا لا تقف مع حزب الله لسواد عيون الحزب ولكن بسبب الضغوطات الإيرانية، أو بسبب العلاقة بين دمشق وطهران.
هل نتفق على هذه النقطة؟
phizo,
تمام.. ومنطقي
وإيران شتبي في حزب الله؟
Arfana,
I don't really know if he really said that. I don't have the time to verify :( But I won't be surprised either. It's normal politics. There is a form of temporary alliance and that requires 'special thanks'. Just as he thanked the Lebanese goverment despite some of them conspiring against the whole resistance in Athens meetings and the Arab League.
Again, its the same pattern with the Palastinian groups. The Jabha sha3biya and democra6iya used to 'thank' the Syrians while their leaders are being tortured in the Syrian prisons. In short, talk is for free :)
Arfana,
I don't really know if he really said that. I don't have the time to verify :( But I won't be surprised either. It's normal politics. There is a form of temporary alliance and that requires 'special thanks'. Just as he thanked the Lebanese goverment despite some of them conspiring against the whole resistance in Athens meetings and the Arab League.
Again, its the same pattern with the Palastinian groups. The Jabha sha3biya and democra6iya used to 'thank' the Syrians while their leaders are being tortured in the Syrian prisons. In short, talk is for free :)
أرفانا،
إيران شتبي من حزب الله؟
إيران من بداية الثورة، ومن مقومات وشعارات الثورة، هي نصرة المستضعفين. فإيران وفقًا لأجندتها الثورية دعم كل المستضعفين في العالم، وأعلنتها منذ ذلك الحين دعم الفلسطينين والأفغان واللبنانين ضد اسرائيل والصحراء الغربية والمسلمين في الفلبين.
هذا كان توجه عام للثورة ولإيران منذ البداية وليس بجديد، فدعم حزب الله ينساق تحت بند نصرة المستضعفين إبتداءً.
عمومًا، إيران تصدر فكر الامام الخميني، وقبلها بفترة قليلة في السبعينيات كان الشهيد الصدر أيضًا يصدر فكر الدعوة، وهو ثقافة شبيهة بثقافة وفكر الخميني.
تلقى هذه الافكار والاطروحات الكثير من الشعوب العربية، ومن بينها الشعب اللبناني!
طبعًا اللبنانيين اختلف تلقيهم لتلك الافكار، لأنهم من البداية كانوا من المستضعفين وتحت العدوان الصهيوني، وبعدها تلقوا تلك الافكار وهم بالأساس شيعة، فقريبين من مصدر ذلك الفكر، لتتكون المقاومة وحزب الله.
فصار حزب الله يرتبط فكريًا مع إيران، واستيراتيجيا ايضا مع ايران.
السؤال هل حزب الله يمشي على اجندة سرية ايرانية؟
ببساطة، ايران تقولها علنًا مرارًا وتكرارًا انها ضد وجود الكيان الصهيوني، كما يرفع هذا الشعار الكثير من الزعماء العرب، ولكن إيران تختلف عن البقية كونها تمارس هذا الشعار من خلال دعم المنظمات المناهضة لهذا الكيان مثل حزب الله وحماس وغيرها.
وحزب الله أيضًا رافع شعار علني لتحرير القدس، فمن يراجع خطابات السيد حسن نصر الله يجده لم ينفي يومًا رغبته في قتال الصهاينة مادامت القدس محتله. إلى اليوم السيد لم يعلن خلاف ذلك فمعنى ذلك ان الحرب مستمرة في المستقبل حتى لو توقفت اليوم.
هناك تكملة وايضاحات اكثر حول هذا الموضوع ولكن افضل الوقوف هنا لنرى شنو وصل من افكار :)
phizo,
مشكور ويعطيك العافية. انت وأخوي تمطور اتفقتوا على أجندة إيران
والتحليل منطقي وسليم منكم إنتوا الأثنين
:-)
If you guys don't mind I'll summarize your thoughts in the next comment/or post for those who are against 7izballa :-)
phizo,
لو في نقاط ثانية تبي ترد عليها تفضل. كنت تبي تعلق على موضوع عبدالناصر؟
Arfana,
موضوع عبدالناصر مهم، لكن انا ما اتفق على القول بانها اجنده ايرانية، لان ذلك معناه مختلف تمامًا.
phizo,
yakhoooooooya don't get picky on me welli ysalmik :-) Remember I'm NOTTTTTTTTTTT a politician lol
وبعيد أنا ما قلت "أجندة إيرانية"، أنا قلت "أجندة إيران" والقصد هدف إيران من دعم حزب الله
:ppppppppppp
I did not want to participate in this, because when you are not a Hizbullah supporter, you are considered a traitor, but I think I got beyond that, so I do not care if you consider me one. let me tell you this; it’s politica my dear, it’s the struggle for power. We are so damn absorbed into heroism and sala7 eldeen, we are so desperate for the hero that could be the one who could save us from this brutal enemy that we can’t even look beyond our noses.
Sweetie; I do not care about any of the commentators above; and I do not blame them either because of this brainwashing that is systematically taking over this region. But let’s have a moment of solitude and let’s think logically. Are we happy with the so called victory? I doubt if you or any other commentators above are happy with the sight of Gana children being pulled out of the rubbles.. Now correct me if I’m wrong. As for me; I’m so devastated and sad. You asked what Nasrullah’s motive is. I ask you; what is everyone’s motive? Don’t believe anyone who tells you that there is no motive, there is always an agenda. Look at the big picture; Iran wants to spread its power on the Islamic soil (tasdeer elthowrah) and that is not a secret, it has been officially declared since khumaini’s time, and Ahmadinijad is a hard liner who is taking the footsteps of Alkhumaini; this is palpable in the Gulf, particularly in Bahrain, Iraq and partly in Kuwait... Saudi Arabia and ikhwan will not allow that to happen, simply because it’s a Shiite movement, otherwise they would have been head over toes for it. Syria; an old US Allie since the father Alassad is loosing ground and they are desperate to negotiate with the US over Hareeri’s assassination, and the US is not giving them face ( listen to Alassad’s speech attentively), the second Gana massacre is their winning card, or that’s what Alassad thinks. Now what is Nasrullah’s motive? I tell you; “Eljomhoriyah Elislamiya Ellibnaniyah” beriasat Nasrullah. Now how does this sound? Mind you; Christians and Sunni citizens of Lebanon are already looking for immigration outside Lebanon. Hizbullah will never give in their weapons that they had gotten from Iran. It is ironic that Iran with poverty rate below average, with citizens that live on rations like communist regimens can afford to support another country and strengthen it with such artillery. Isn’t this a cause for questioning? Thousands of Iranians are stranded away from their country, and Ahmadinijad is paying for the reconstruction of Lebanon? What do you think is Ahmadinijad’s motive? If he cared about the poor Palestinians, wouldn’t it be more logical to give some of his sympathy to his own people?
This all goes back to one thing; it is politica, and the struggle for power, and who is the victim? Go figure…
Ayya,
Nawwartay el post for the first time!:-)
I'm just happy u joined in the discussion.
I'm mentally and emotionally drained to be objective these days. I just have a couple of questions on the suggested agenda.
1. Iran has also been clear about its objective to support resistance again Israel's existance. Are we saying that we are against that? Or are we against it because it comes from Iran? Should we just roll over and accept Israel as is? 7izballah has been clear about exactly that. So it's logical they're allies considering the ideology overlap as well. No?
2. Do we have any evidence for "jimhoorya islameya"? That's my major concern in all of this. I would appreciate some input there.
Again, nawwartay, keep visiting next time u'll get a free ice cream :-)
Arfana
It would be foolish to think on the logic of extinguishing Israel from existence, as it is foolish to think that 7isbullah can be exterminated. It doesn’t matter if Iran or Saudi Arabia or even Kuwait had such a goal. Israel does exist whether we like it or not. 60 yeas passed and it’s a sovereign nation in the world today. It’s superiority over us comes from its allies of which the USA is the strongest. In other words; it’s a dragon that cannot be taken by force. But we have to live with it, not for its sake, but for our sake, our children, our economy, our civilization. Peace treaties might get us some of the land and some of the dignity we lost. Peace treaties are not issued between allies, it is issued between rivals. We don’t have to love each other, but God’s land is vast, if human agree to share it without fight each can get his benefit and prosper. And that’s what we need.
If you go back in history; you will see that our region was never stable; a war ends and another begins. As a result we stayed behind socially, economically and politically. This exhausted Moslem minds in addition to the lame democracy that the rulers imposed on them. They don’t see the shortcoming in their political life under corrupt rulers because their attention is purposefully directed by these rulers to the cliché of the common enemy. Moslems are victims of their societies, yearning to the glorious past while they feel the injustices of the present. Their only refuge is religion, and that’s why among others a slogan of “Islam is the solution” came out.
Unfortunately, clerics used that, whether in Iran, Palestine, Iraq, or even Afghanistan. What we call terror organizations and others call mojahideen (Algaida and others) found a fertile soil to gain political power. In that sense 7isbullah does not differ much from those organizations that were formed out of despair. 7isbullah would not submit its weapons; their excuse is defending their land. But defending a land should come through international law, through the country’s government; all forces should be united under one flag, not two. If that happened in Lebanon today; I mean if 7isbullah submitted its weapons today, I will believe that Hasan Nasrullah does not have his own agenda.
Moslems are not to blame, their agony is real, but the means they take to have Justus in the world is wrong. And if you remember the most prosperous term of Islam in science, art and civilization was during the Umayyad and Abasi periods where tolerance of other cultures was at its peak.
Ok, now for the ice-cream; I like it chocolate mint :)
MaGooL ella WAIT for el-thawra elly ra7 t9eer fe LeBaNoN soon as i think..
Enjoyed a lot! Hiking mt kilimanjaro
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